Market Overview: Scotland to America
An overview of the Scotland to America market including both current and former routes that have operated, with a look ahead to Summer 2025.
Well…this might be interesting, and if any post is going to gain a reaction across this series I am prepared to bet it will be this one, anyway, lets crack on with this.
Last year I made a series of presentations about market share across Scotland to the ten largest inbound tourist markets as identified by Visit Scotland. Now that 2024 has concluded and we have a years worth of data I thought it would be a good idea to revisit each of these markets in a bit more detail.
A disclaimer is needed here, I have done this from an airport neutral point of view, and it is very important to remember that just because a load factor is high, that does not necessarily mean that yields are high.
This particular post is focusing specifically on the Scotland-America market, which is the largest inbound tourism market for Scotland.
For those unfamiliar with the route networks and airlines below is a summary of the routes and airlines that operated flights in 2024;
Edinburgh to Atlanta with Delta Air Lines
Edinburgh to Boston with Delta Air Lines
Edinburgh to Chicago with United Airlines
Edinburgh to New York JFK with Delta Air Lines and JetBlue
Edinburgh to Newark with United Airlines
Edinburgh to Orlando with Virgin Atlantic
Edinburgh to Washington Dulles with United Airlines
Glasgow to Melbourne Orlando with TUI
This list on its own starts to reveal why this post will attract attention, but as you will see throughout this post, some of the numbers are truly eye opening, and some people (and organisations) have been able to use numbers to tell one story, while neglecting to focus on the wider picture.
If you would like to skip to a specific section of this post then you can use the contents table below to skip to wherever in the post you like;
Route Specific Information
Previously Served Destinations
Passenger Numbers Per Month
As the above graph shows, both airports suffer from seasonality, just in different forms. Flights from Edinburgh pick up significantly in the summer months when compared to the winter, for example if you compare January to July passenger numbers in the latter are 642.65% higher.
Moving over to Glasgow, flights are seasonal in the sense that they only operate during the summer months, with a very slight overspill into November as a result of TUI operating a flight from Orlando at the start of the month to bring people home. Passenger numbers each month are roughly stable, with May and October being lower as a result of TUI only operating some flights in one direction in these months.
Passenger Numbers Per Year
Although the on the surface picture from the graph is hardly surprising, with Edinburgh being above 2019 levels and well ahead of Glasgow which lags 2019 levels, when you add some context to this the picture changes something entirely.
Passenger numbers at the end of 2024 were operating at 100.25% of 2019 levels, with the recovery rate for each airport below;
Edinburgh = 138.65%
Glasgow = 17.07%
As seen, despite the rapid success of Edinburgh Airport, it wasn’t until the end of 2024 that the US market recovered to its 2019 levels, which may come as a surprise to others, and shows that actually, as the growth has all been at one airport it can create the illusion that the USA market is booming, when in reality the market was still in recovery until this year.
Market Share Per Airport
Perhaps to nobodies surprise Edinburgh Airport holds the vast majority of the US market from Scotland, with Glasgow holding less than 6% of the market.
Looking before the pandemic, market share at Edinburgh was climbing, while market share in Glasgow was falling as a result of airlines such as American moving flights to Edinburgh, as well as United converting their Glasgow flights to summer seasonal, with flights only between May and October.
Route Specific Information
This section outlines the routes that will operate in Summer 2025 that also operated in Summer 2024.
Atlanta
Flights between Edinburgh and Atlanta are currently operated by Delta Air Lines, and returned in 2023 for the first time since 2007. Flights currently operated during the summer months only, with the airline recently expanding the start of the season to include April in 2025.
Furthermore, for Summer 2025 the airline has increased frequencies on the route from 7 to 10 weekly, with the three additional weekly flights being operated by larger Airbus A330-200 aircraft rather than the more traditional Boeing 767-300.
In terms of capacity for this summer, the recently published “Start of Season Report” for Edinburgh Airport shows the following;
Movements will increase from 274 to 470 - equating to an increase of 72%
This means increasing from 137 to 235 round trips
Seats available will increase from 59,184 to 102,346 - equating to an increase of 73%
Unlike other countries, the United States actually published a lot of data when it comes to International air travel to and from the country. The US International Trade Administration publishes a breakdown of passenger numbers on each route - and interestingly breaks down the numbers by US Citizens and Non-US Citizens.
Looking at the Atlanta route it is clear that US travellers compose the majority of passengers, and have done since the route resumed. Atlanta is also Delta’s major US hub, so supports connections from smaller US towns and cities transferring to Edinburgh.
Boston
Flights between Edinburgh and Boston were exclusively operated by Delta Air Lines until 2025 when rival carrier JetBlue started operating their own flights. Of the US destinations served from Edinburgh, Boston remains one of the more seasonal ones, with flights not resuming until the first or second week in May, unlike Delta’s other routes and the majority of routes by their rivals.
Both Delta and JetBlue operate a daily service on the route, with Delta using the Boeing 767-300 and JetBlue the Airbus A321, however, it is worth noting that in 2024 Boston witnessed, albeit a small drop, in passenger numbers, a trend which will be reversed by two carriers operating the route.
As of the end of 2019, passenger numbers were operating at 218.78% of 2019 figures, however, it is worth pointing out that the route only commenced operations in 2019, and did not have enough time to establish itself before the pandemic hit.
In terms of capacity for this summer, the recently published “Start of Season Report” for Edinburgh Airport shows the following;
Delta Air Lines
Movements will increase from 340 to 342 - equating to an increase of 1%
This means increasing from 170 to 171 round trips
Seats available will increase from 73,440 to 73,872 - equating to an increase of 1%
JetBlue
Movements will increase from 0 to 312 - a new service for Summer 2025
This means 156 round trips will operate
Seats available will increase from 0 to 48,672
Market Total
Movements will increase from 340 to 654 - equating to an increase of 92.35%
Seats will increase from 73,440 to 122,544 - equating to an increase of 66.86%
Looking at the Boston route it is clear that US travellers compose the majority of passengers, and have done since the route commenced in 2019, however, levels have remained consistent since the end of the pandemic, with no change between 2023 and 2024.
Chicago
Chicago is the first route in this article to be operated by United Airlines, and similar to Atlanta and Boston it also operates on a summer seasonal basis. Similar to Boston it is a route that does not commence its operations until May rather than the end of March or start of April.
At the end of 2024, passenger numbers were operating at 94.28% of 2019 levels, however, passenger numbers are likely to exceed 2019 levels this summer assuming the average load factor remains the same as last year.
In terms of capacity for this summer, the recently published “Start of Season Report” for Edinburgh Airport shows the following;
Movements will increase from 292 to 354 - equating to an increase of 21%
This means increasing from 146 to 177 round trips
Seats available will increase from 51,392 to 62,304 - equating to an increase of 21%
This is the first of the “established” USA routes that operated long before the pandemic, thus providing the first real opportunity to do an accurate pre/post pandemic comparison of the passenger demographics change. Furthermore, as the route is operating at roughly similar levels as 2019 it further solidifies the opportunity to compare demographics.
The number of US Citizens travelling on the route has increased significantly since 2019 as Americans take advantage of a favourable exchange rate making Scotland a cheaper destination for them to visit. With reports of UK travellers deciding to travel elsewhere in 2025, it will be interesting to see if US travellers will increase their share of the passengers to over 90%.
Orlando Sanford & Melbourne Orlando
I have combined both of these airports as ultimately, the are serving the same purpose and it would make more sense to view them together rather than separately.
Flights to Sanford and Melbourne Orlando were/are operated by TUI and serves as their gateway to Florida, with the airline swapping airports in 2022 to better serve their TUI cruise operation, as well as offering passengers what they feel is a better experience.
Melbourne Orlando also holds two rather unusual titles, it is the only USA route to have dropped off the Edinburgh Airport network since the pandemic, and it is also the only US route from Glasgow Airport at the time of writing.
Given the significant collapse in available seats from Glasgow to Orlando, it is therefore no surprise that passenger numbers are operating at 177.28% of 2019 levels, however, the passenger numbers are expected to drop this year as a result of reduced capacity from TUI at Glasgow Airport.
In terms of capacity for this summer, the recently published “Start of Season Report” for Glasgow Airport shows the following;
Movements will decrease from 110 to 85 - equating to a reduction of 23%
This means reducing from 55 to 42.5 round trips
Seats available will decrease from 33,000 to 25,950 - equating to a reduction of 21%
It should be noted however that TUI has also reduced capacity to Florida from Newcastle, Manchester & Birmingham, meaning any accusation of poor market performance at Glasgow cannot be taken at face value, but rather, consideration needs to be given to the whole Florida operation by the airline as a whole.
No real surprises in this data given TUI is a UK holiday airline and not set up for handling passengers originating in the US - although there was a tiny number of US citizens on this flight, they could have travelled from the UK on a US passport taking advantage of the flight only offering from TUI.
New York JFK
New York JFK is the first of the US routes that has actually consolidated at Edinburgh Airport since the pandemic, with Delta Air Lines no longer operating flights to Glasgow, with the airline choosing instead to operate flights only from Edinburgh.
In Summer 2024, JetBlue operated flights on the route for the first time, and as a result made JFK the only US-Edinburgh route to face direct competition from another carrier, they have since done the same with Delta at Boston.
At the end of 2024, passenger numbers between Scotland and JFK were operating at 105.14% of 2019 levels, with the individual recovery rate for each airport below;
Edinburgh = 152.54%
Glasgow = Suspended
In terms of capacity for this summer, the recently published “Start of Season Report” for Edinburgh Airport shows the following;
Delta Air Lines
Movements will remain at 420 - the same as Summer 2024
This means 210 round trips will operate
Seats available will remain at 90,720 - the same as Summer 2024
JetBlue
Movements will increase from 314 to 340 - equating to an increase of 8%
This means increasing from 157 to 170 round trips
Seats available will increase from 48,984 to 53,040 - equating to an increase of 8%
Market Total
Movements will increase from 734 to 760 - equating to an increase of 3.54%
Seats available will increase from 139,704 to 143,760 - equating to an increase of 2.90%
Perhaps most surprising is the 2019 data, which shows that as a percentage of passengers, both Edinburgh and Glasgow were equal in terms of a US Citizen/Foreign split, a trend which has not been put to the test since the pandemic as no airline operates from Glasgow.
With the percentage of Foreign travellers between Scotland and JFK hovering around 32% since the pandemic, it has been one of the routes to remain relatively consistent, and it would be interesting to see if this trend would be the same if Glasgow was to return to the JFK network.
Newark
Newark is unusual in the sense it is the only US route that operates on a year round basis from Scotland - JFK takes a two month break and Washington Dulles takes a month break.
Flights are operated by United Airlines and the airline currently uses their Boeing 757-200 aircraft on the route, with a second daily flight operating during the peak summer also being operated by a Boeing 757-200.
Similar to New York JFK flights before the pandemic used to operate from both Edinburgh and Glasgow, and in an all too familiar tale, flights have since consolidated at Edinburgh.
At the end of 2024, flights from Scotland were operating at 90.06% of 2019 levels, with the individual recovery rate for each airport below;
Edinburgh = 129.25%
Glasgow = Suspended
In terms of capacity for this summer, the recently published “Start of Season Report” for Edinburgh Airport shows the following;
Movements will increase from 634 to 670 - equating to an increase of 6%
This means increasing from 317 to 335 round trips
Seats available will increase from 51,392 to 62,304 - equating to an increase of 6%
Disclaimer: This increase only restores the second daily flight on a year round basis in July and August which was removed by the airline for Summer 2024
Another surprising finding is that in 2019, as a percentage of overall passenger numbers, Glasgow Airport had a slightly higher % of inbound US passengers when compared to Edinburgh Airport, perhaps to the surprise of many. Obviously passenger numbers were higher at Edinburgh, but remember, I am talking about the percentage of passenger numbers!
Since the pandemic, the number of UK passengers travelling to Newark from Scotland has decreased as a percentage of the yearly totals, somewhat following the trend we would expect to see as a result of the exchange rate and the current political situation.
Orlando International
Orlando is an interesting one, in 2019 flights from Scotland to Orlando International were operated by Thomas Cook (until the collapsed) and Virgin Atlantic, with the latter operating flights from March to January.
Fast forward to 2024 and flights now operate from Edinburgh with Virgin Atlantic, albeit at a lower frequency and only between April and October.
Factoring this in mind, it explains why passenger numbers at the end of 2024 from Scotland were only at 49.82% of 2019 levels.
In terms of capacity for this summer, the recently published “Start of Season Report” for Edinburgh Airport shows the following;
Movements will remain at 120 - the same as Summer 2024
This means 60 round trips will operate
Seats available will remain at 47,640 - the same as Summer 2024
Interestingly though, Virgin has changed the way their flights from Edinburgh will operate in Summer 2025, unlocking 7 and 14 night holidays from the airport for the first time, so Summer 2025 could see a significant improvement in load factors on the route, which consistently has the lowest average load factor of all the US routes from Edinburgh.
Furthermore, looking ahead to Summer 2026, the airline has already announced they will operate an additional 12 rotations adding just under 5,000 seats - however, I have always interpreted “rotations” in this context to mean round trips, which would actually add around 9,000 seats to the market.
The number of US travellers flying to Scotland from Orlando has increased as a % of total passenger numbers, increasing from 7.6% in 2019 to 17.2% in 2024 - however, this is more a case of statistics telling different stories depending on how you frame it.
The total number of US travellers in 2019 was 5,607
The total number of US travellers in 2024 was 6,431
When framed in the context of a % of yearly passenger numbers the increase was 9.6%, however, the physical number of US travellers increased by 14.7%.
It is worth remembering though, in 2019 the cost of living in America was significantly lower than it is today [Source: How America became the world’s costliest holiday destination], couple that with a favourable exchange rate, it’s no surprise really to see that the number of US travellers on these flights has increased as UK travellers increasing look elsewhere for holidays, although with inflation easing it will be interesting to see how Orlando continues to evolve from Scotland in the future.
Washington Dulles
Washington Dulles flights are operated by United Airlines using Boeing 757-200 aircraft with flights traditionally operating during the summer months, however, the airline has since announced they are going to significantly expand the operational seasons of this flight, with services operating 11 months of the year.
In terms of 2024, passenger numbers were operating at 164.31% of 2019 levels, with no change in terms of Scottish Airport services are operating from.
In terms of capacity for this summer, the recently published “Start of Season Report” for Edinburgh Airport shows the following;
Movements will remain at 420 - the same as Summer 2024
This means 210 round trips will operate
Seats available will remain at 73,920 - the same as Summer 2024
Again no real surprises in this data, with US Travellers making up the majority of passengers on these flights - remember, inbound travel is where EDI is typically associated with doing well.
I would expect roughly the same split in 2025, however, it will be very interesting to see the Winter 2025/2026 data as Newark typically becomes more UK heavy at that time of year.
Previously Served Destinations
This section contains information on routes that previously operated from the USA to Scotland, as well as details of one former route that is now returning in 2025.
Las Vegas
Flights between Glasgow and Las Vegas were operated by both Thomas Cook and Virgin Atlantic, with the airlines reducing flights in 2018, before ending service in 2019.
This route is unusual as it has only ever operated from Glasgow, with no airline operating flights from Edinburgh, and no real prospect of the route returning in the near future.
Newburgh - New York Stewart
This is one of the more unusual routes that has operated, with flights being operated by Norwegian on their Boeing 737 MAX8 aircraft, despite the MAX groundings in March of 2019, the airline had already planned to end service on this route at the end of the same month citing a failure of the Scottish Government to reduce APD [Source: Norwegian Air cuts budget flights from Edinburgh and Belfast to America].
In 2019, the split between US Citizens and Foreign Citizens was 44.4% US and 55.6% Foreign, however, as winter months tend to be more UK heavy for the US market it is unfair to judge this route solely on the three months it operated.
Philadelphia
Flights between Scotland and Philadelphia were operated by American Airlines using Boeing 757 aircraft. Historically the airline operated their flights to Glasgow, with the airline only changing to Edinburgh in 2019 - it would therefore be premature to draw any sort of conclusion about improvements in performance based on one year of operation.
In 2025 American Airlines has recommenced it’s Edinburgh to Philadelphia route, now using Boeing 787-8 and 787-9 aircraft, with details on movements and seats below;
Movements = 276 (138 round trips)
Seats = 64,584
In 2019, the split between US Citizens and Foreign Citizens was 84% US and 16% Foreign.
Providence
Similar to Newburgh flights were operated by Norwegian on their Boeing 737 MAX8 aircraft, the airline had already ended service on this route citing a failure of the Scottish Government to reduce APD [Source: Norwegian Air cuts budget flights from Edinburgh and Belfast to America].
Windsor Locks
This was the shortest lived of the three Norwegian operated US flights from Edinburgh with flights only operating for around a year before being suspended by the airline.
Windsor Locks is roughly half way between New York City and Boston, and could explain why the route was not as successful as other US routes, as US travellers would rather travel on a US airline they are familiar with, and UK travellers would rather travel to an airport they have heard of and finish their journey from there.
The advantage of flying to New York or Boston is the ability to connect onto flights across the USA, something that is not really possible from smaller regional airports like Windsor Locks.
Lets Address the Elephant in the Room!
I want to specifically talk about paragraph three of the press release issued about American Airlines returning to Edinburgh Airport in 2025.
Is the claim “sees Edinburgh Airport reconnect to all its pre-Covid transatlantic routes” true, or just a bending of reality?
The issue is, it depends, as highlighted in this article Norwegian are no longer flying to Newburgh and TUI are no longer flying to Orlando Sanford (or Cancun in Mexico).
With those three routes not operating in 2025, especially Cancun which leaves Mexico off the departure boards, it does seem a strange claim to make.
Something like “when compared to May 2019, Edinburgh Airport is now reconnected to all its pre-Covid transatlantic destinations” would have been an improvement, but still very easy to poke holes in.
It would be like Glasgow Airport saying JFK returned to their network in 2025 because HiFly operated a return trip on behalf of Global Airlines (go on James, say I'm spreading lies).
Given the EDI network is still missing routes, and countries, from its transatlantic network compared to 2019, making the claim above just seems weird and borderline unnecessary, and somewhat detracts from the occasion.